September NPD reports are in: (thanks Joystiq!)

1. Halo 3: ODST - 360 - Microsoft - 1.52m
2. Wii Sports Resort (w/ Wii Motion Plus) - Wii - Nintendo - 443K
3. Madden NFL 10 - 360 - EA - 290K
4. Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story - DS - Nintendo - 258K
5. The Beatles: Rock Band - 360 - EA - 254K
6. Madden NFL 10 - PS3 - EA - 247K
7. Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2 -360 - Activision - 236K
8. Batman: Arkham Asylum - PS3 -Eidos - 213K
9. Guitar Hero 5 - 360 - Activision - 211K
10. The Beatles: Rock Band - Wii - EA - 209K

Let me stack this up to my September predictions.

Let's start with rhythm games:
"Guitar Hero 5 will be the first Guitar Hero that is outsold by a Rock Band title." Well I nailed that, at least in it's first month. The Beatles: Rock Band makes 2 appearances on the charts, one of which is higher than GH:5.

With all of the mainstream hype behind The Beatles: Rock Band, you'd have thought the game would sell millions, but the highest it charted was 5th. Harmonix has said they're pleased with the sales, but with talk of them having paid a huge amount for the rights, I doubt sales of under a million copies across 3 consoles mean recouping costs.

Need for Speed: Shift didn't chart, sales are down. I thought it might make Top 10 on 360, but it didn't make it.

Scribblenauts didn't chart, despite the hype, as predicted.

Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2 did sell, but only came in at number 7. I imagine next month it will be gone from the charts, a far cry from the big numbers the first game posted. (Though I'm certain part 1 benefited from being a pack in for awhile.

Halo 3 topped the charts, selling over a million, a pretty obvious prediction.

Kingdom Hearts on DS didn't chart. I think some were surprised by it's absence, but that was pretty clear to me.

The only real mistake I made in my assessment came from Batman: Arkham Asylum. I predicted the 360 version would end up beween 7th and 10th positions and the PS3 version would fall off. Had I switched the versions I would have been dead on.

Michael Pachter eat your heart out!

There will be updates soon

I've been busy with work, so updating a blog has kind of fallen off my radar. Things are slowing down somewhat, so I should be able to do an incremental updates on my predictions. So far I've been really off about Batman, and I'm afraid I may have been too pessimisitic. It would appear that I am not the next Michael Pachter.

Well the NPD's are in for August.

And the Top 10 are:

Madden NFL 10 (360) – 928,000
Wii Sports Resort (Wii) – 754,000
Madden NFL 10 (PS3) – 665,000
Batman: Arkham Asylum (360) – 303,000
Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3) – 290,000
Madden NFL 10 (PS2) – 160,000
Dissidia: Final Fantasy (PSP) – 130,000
Wii Fit (Wii) – 128,000
Mario Kart (Wii) – 120,000
Fossil Fighters (DS) – 92,000

Madden coming out on top is no suprise, but it sold under a million on 360, which is a suprise. Suprisingly strong showing for the PS3 version at number 3. The PS2 version at number 6 this late into the console's life is suprising. No appearance of the Wii version on the charts suprises me, EA pushed the family friendly features, but I guess people don't like the Team Fortress 2 art style in a sports game.

Dissidia is further proof that the Final Fantasy name can move units. 130k for a PSP game is great, especially when you consider the state of the economy and falling game sales overall.

Batman came in at 4 & 5 for 360 and PS3 respectively, but I don't think with only 6 days on the chart I can draw a full assessment versus my predicitions. I'm going to add these numbers to the September numbers and see where it finally falls in comparitive sales. I still think that sales for even the few days it was out are lower than expected, especially with the spectacular reviews, podcast hype, and Guinness World Record.

And you thought the US App Store was bad

http://bit.ly/wX3Xh

Engadget is reporting on the annoucement that the iPhone is gonna be sold in China. People in the US who get pissed at AT&T for blocking apps that would use too much 3G bandwidth (like the Sling Player app), and at Apple for app approval craziness (like the recent Ninjawords dictionary censorship debacle) haven't seen anything yet.

We're talking about taking a phone with a closed app ecosystem to a country where World of Warcraft access was cut off to millions of users because it contains images that the communist government deemed objectionable. I wonder how Apple will manage the App Store there. Will it be a joint venture? It should be interesting to see how well Apple's draconian app store policies mesh in a hyper-restrictive culture.

It seems I overlooked Batman: Arkham Asylum

With positive reviews coming out left and right and podcast hype higher than I've seen in ages, Batman: Arkham Asylum has been unleashed upon the world.

I have the demo on my PS3 and haven't played it yet, but honestly I have to wonder how the game is gonna sell. Because of the movie series reboot, interest in Batman is at an all time high (even though he was killed in the comics recently, wasn't he?). That seems to bode well for the game.

However, the game is fan service to old school fans. The voice cast from the excellent Batman: The Animated Series, and obscure villians from Batman's absurb rogues gallery. Are these things going to resonate with the audience who just wants to see a crazy and dark Joker? Or whose villian knowledge might include Harley Quinn?

I see big sales numbers (360 leading by about 2 to 1 over PS3). But if you want the game then I'd hold off. This is gonna flood Gamestop shelves in time for Christmas and drop the used price because of supply. I think it will show up in the middle to top of the August charts. Expect podcast NPD discussions to say it's a suprise that it wasn't either higher or lower than it placed and comment on PS3 vs. 360 sales.

Large drop off in September, 360 between 7 to 10, PS3 gone from charts. Expect a great deal on a new copy on Black Friday, or potentially a price drop to attempt to respur sales. If there's a sequel announced it will be pawned off on another developer, which will likely make it the last game in the franchise because it will be far lower in quality (or at least percieved as such).

Can Microsoft turn around a brand with the Zune HD?

Microsoft launched the Zune line of mp3 players back a few years ago, touting the ability to "squirt" songs to other people via wi-fi and telling us all "welcome to the social."

Was owning a Zune a social experience? Not according to the one guy I knew who bought one.

Zune's aren't bad mp3 players, and are a solid alternative to the iPod now that the Zune software (and subscription Zune Pass) are more up to snuff. The problem is that the general user has no clue what a Zune is, and those that do laugh it off while they wipe the grease off their iPhones or iPod Touches.

Now in an attempt to fight back and reinvigorate the brand we are on the verge of the launch of the Zune HD. By all accounts of people who have held it, the thing has a good feel and a gorgeous screen. It's other touted feature is the video download service, which is tied to XBox Live. At first glance this seems plausible. The 360 is a fantastically popular peice of hardware and resides in millions of living rooms. Tying your new PMP to your super popular console.. genius! People will abandon their iPod Touches and make the Zune HD a success!

But the problem is that there are way more people with a computer that can run iTunes (and thus put videos from that service on their various and sundry iDevices) than there are 360's. I know the Zune HD can also sync with PC's to get those files, but I don't know anyone who is currently running the Zune software.

Plus, the iPod Touch has a huge lead, and I think is far too entrenched. It also has one thing over the Zune HD. The dreaded App Store. Bane of existence to everyone combating Apple in the phone space, and Achilles heel of the Zune HD! There is no reported App support on the Zune. If Microsoft doesn't make this thing developer friendly and get some games going then they are all but guaranteeing that the Zune HD will be a footnote in history, destined for a Gadget Warehouse Friday appearance on the Daily GizWiz in a few years. Allow me to write the epitaph "A solid device that had cool features, but ultimately people just didn't buy it."

There are days when you feel so accomplished

Today is one of those days. I'm 25. So far this year I did standup, got married, my step son started Pre-K today (14 years till he's in college and out of the house!), and tonight I will hear if the seler accepted our offer on a town home.